The US just told China to stop copying its AI. Enforcing that is the hard part.



Summary: The White House OSTP released a policy memo accusing China of “industrial-scale” distillation of US AI models, committing to share intelligence with US AI companies and explore accountability measures. OpenAI accused DeepSeek of distilling its models in February; Anthropic named DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Moonshot AI as having created 24,000 fraudulent accounts generating 16+ million exchanges with Claude. The Deterring American AI Model Theft Act (H.R. 8283) was introduced on 15 April. The memo arrives three weeks before a planned Trump-Xi summit on 14 May.

The White House accused China on Wednesday of conducting “industrial-scale” theft of American artificial intelligence, releasing a policy memorandum that commits the government to sharing intelligence with US AI companies about foreign distillation campaigns and exploring measures to hold the perpetrators accountable. Michael Kratsios, director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, said the US “has evidence that foreign entities, primarily in China, are running industrial-scale distillation campaigns to steal American AI. We will be taking action to protect American innovation.” The memo lands three weeks before a planned Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on 14 May, positioning AI technology protection as both a national security imperative and a negotiating chip.

Distillation is the technique at the centre of the dispute. It does not require stealing model weights or breaking into servers. A distiller feeds thousands or millions of carefully constructed queries to a frontier AI model, collects the responses, and uses those responses to train a cheaper rival model that approximates the original’s capabilities at a fraction of the cost. It is, in effect, learning from the teacher’s answers rather than the teacher’s brain. The legal status of this technique is unsettled. The strategic implications are not.

The evidence

The OSTP memo builds on allegations that US AI companies have been making since February. OpenAI sent a formal memo to the House Select Committee on China on 12 February accusing DeepSeek of distilling its models. OpenAI said it had identified accounts associated with DeepSeek employees that developed methods to circumvent access restrictions, routing queries through obfuscated third-party proxies to extract outputs at scale. OpenAI’s terms of service explicitly prohibit using outputs to create “imitation frontier AI models.” DeepSeek has not publicly responded to the allegations.

Anthropic published more detailed evidence on 23 February, naming three Chinese laboratories. DeepSeek, it said, conducted more than 150,000 exchanges with Claude focused on foundational logic and alignment techniques. MiniMax drove the most traffic, with more than 13 million exchanges. Moonshot AI generated more than 3.4 million exchanges targeting agentic reasoning, tool use, coding, and computer vision. Across the three firms, Anthropic identified approximately 24,000 fraudulent accounts that generated more than 16 million exchanges with Claude. The accounts used jailbreaking techniques to expose proprietary information and circumvented geofencing through commercial proxy services.

By early April, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google had begun sharing distillation threat intelligence through the Frontier Model Forum, a coalition originally founded in 2023 with Microsoft. The arrangement is modelled on cybersecurity threat-sharing frameworks: when one company detects an attack pattern, it flags it for the others. That three fierce competitors agreed to cooperate on anything is itself a measure of how seriously they take the threat. DeepSeek proved that frontier AI performance no longer requires Silicon Valley-scale resources, and the question the US government is now asking is how much of that efficiency was earned and how much was extracted.

The policy response

The OSTP memo is a policy statement, not an executive order or a binding regulation. It directs federal departments to share intelligence with US AI developers about foreign distillation attempts, help industry strengthen technical defences, and explore accountability measures for foreign actors. No specific sanctions, entity list additions, or enforcement actions were announced on Wednesday. The memo’s practical force will depend on what follows it.

Congress is moving in parallel. On 15 April, Representative Bill Huizenga introduced the Deterring American AI Model Theft Act of 2026, co-sponsored by Representative John Moolenaar, who chairs the House Select Committee on China. The bill would direct the government to identify entities using “improper query-and-copy techniques” and impose sanctions through the Commerce Department blacklist. The House Select Committee held a hearing on 16 April titled “China’s Campaign to Steal America’s AI Edge,” with witnesses from Brookings, the Silverado Policy Accelerator, and the America First Policy Institute. The issue has bipartisan support. Roll Call reported that “winning the AI arms race holds appeal for both parties.”

The legal theory underpinning prosecution remains unclear. The Protecting American Intellectual Property Act, signed in January 2023, authorises sanctions for trade secret theft, but whether extracted model outputs qualify as trade secrets under existing frameworks is an open question. The South China Morning Post noted that Anthropic’s distillation charges “expose an AI training grey area,” and legal analysts at Just Security have argued that the case for imposing costs on distillation requires targeted government intervention precisely because existing intellectual property law does not cleanly cover it.

The second line of defence

The shift from hardware controls to model-level protections represents an acknowledgement that the first line of defence is leaking. The US has been restricting China’s access to advanced AI chips since October 2022, broadening the rules in October 2023 and again with the AI Diffusion Rule in January 2025. In January 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security shifted its review of H200 and AMD MI325X exports to China from a presumption of denial to case-by-case review, while the White House simultaneously imposed a 25% tariff on advanced semiconductors. Nvidia was permitted to sell its H20 inference chip; AMD its MI308.

But hardware controls are circumvented in practice. A $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle Nvidia AI chips to China through Super Micro’s co-founder was charged in March. Jensen Huang warned that DeepSeek optimising for Huawei chips would be a “horrible outcome” for America, because it would eliminate the hardware chokepoint entirely. If advanced chips can be smuggled despite export controls, and if Chinese chipmakers are closing the gap with domestic alternatives, then preventing access to the models themselves becomes the critical second layer of the technology denial strategy. Proposals to tag AI chips with unique identifiers represent a third layer, tracking hardware flows to prevent diversion. The emerging architecture is defence in depth: control the chips, control the models, and track both.

The open-source complication

Distillation is not the only channel through which US AI technology reaches Chinese laboratories. Meta’s Llama models are open source, meaning the weights are publicly available for download. Chinese researchers from PLA-linked institutions fine-tuned Llama 13B on military data to create ChatBIT, a model designed for military intelligence applications. Meta’s acceptable use policy prohibits military and espionage applications, but the company has no technical means to enforce that restriction on open-source releases. Once the weights are published, control is relinquished. Meta responded by opening Llama to the US military and Five Eyes allies while maintaining the ban for adversaries, a policy distinction that is legally meaningful and practically unenforceable.

The tension between open-source AI and national security has been building for years but has not produced a coherent policy resolution. Open-source models drive research, attract talent, and create ecosystems that benefit American companies. Restricting them would slow US innovation while pushing Chinese developers toward domestic alternatives. Not restricting them means providing the foundational technology for adversary military applications. The Huizenga bill focuses on distillation, the unauthorised extraction of capability from closed models, rather than on open-source distribution, sidestepping the harder question.

What comes next

The US-China chip war has already drawn allies into the effort, with the Netherlands restricting ASML’s lithography exports under American pressure. Model-level restrictions would require a different enforcement architecture. Chips are physical objects that cross borders. Distillation happens over the internet, through API calls that can be routed through any jurisdiction. Detecting it requires the kind of behavioural analysis that Anthropic performed when it identified 24,000 fraudulent accounts, not the kind of customs inspection that catches smuggled hardware.

The Trump-Xi summit on 14 May will test whether the OSTP memo is the beginning of a sustained enforcement campaign or a negotiating position designed to extract concessions. China wants the US to loosen technology controls, remove more than 1,000 Chinese firms from entity lists, and reduce investment restrictions. The US wants China to stop distilling its AI models, stop smuggling its chips, and stop fine-tuning its open-source models for military use. The gap between those positions is wide enough that neither side is likely to get what it wants. What the memo establishes, regardless of the summit’s outcome, is that the US now treats AI model protection as a category of national security alongside chip export controls and semiconductor equipment restrictions. The question is no longer whether distillation is a problem. It is whether the government can enforce a border around something that has no physical form.



Source link

Leave a Reply

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get our latest articles delivered straight to your inbox. No spam, we promise.

Recent Reviews


As I’m writing this, NVIDIA is the largest company in the world, with a market cap exceeding $4 trillion. Team Green is now the leader among the Magnificent Seven of the tech world, having surpassed them all in just a few short years.

The company has managed to reach these incredible heights with smart planning and by making the right moves for decades, the latest being the decision to sell shovels during the AI gold rush. Considering the current hardware landscape, there’s simply no reason for NVIDIA to rush a new gaming GPU generation for at least a few years. Here’s why.

Scarcity has become the new normal

Not even Nvidia is powerful enough to overcome market constraints

Global memory shortages have been a reality since late 2025, and they aren’t just affecting RAM and storage manufacturers. Rather, this impacts every company making any product that contains memory or storage—including graphics cards.

Since NVIDIA sells GPU and memory bundles to its partners, which they then solder onto PCBs and add cooling to create full-blown graphics cards, this means that NVIDIA doesn’t just have to battle other tech giants to secure a chunk of TSMC’s limited production capacity to produce its GPU chips. It also has to procure massive amounts of GPU memory, which has never been harder or more expensive to obtain.

While a company as large as NVIDIA certainly has long-term contracts that guarantee stable memory prices, those contracts aren’t going to last forever. The company has likely had to sign new ones, considering the GPU price surge that began at the beginning of 2026, with gaming graphics cards still being overpriced.

With GPU memory costing more than ever, NVIDIA has little reason to rush a new gaming GPU generation, because its gaming earnings are just a drop in the bucket compared to its total earnings.

NVIDIA is an AI company now

Gaming GPUs are taking a back seat

A graph showing NVIDIA revenue breakdown in the last few years. Credit: appeconomyinsights.com

NVIDIA’s gaming division had been its golden goose for decades, but come 2022, the company’s data center and AI division’s revenue started to balloon dramatically. By the beginning of fiscal year 2023, data center and AI revenue had surpassed that of the gaming division.

In fiscal year 2026 (which began on July 1, 2025, and ends on June 30, 2026), NVIDIA’s gaming revenue has contributed less than 8% of the company’s total earnings so far. On the other hand, the data center division has made almost 90% of NVIDIA’s total revenue in fiscal year 2026. What I’m trying to say is that NVIDIA is no longer a gaming company—it’s all about AI now.

Considering that we’re in the middle of the biggest memory shortage in history, and that its AI GPUs rake in almost ten times the revenue of gaming GPUs, there’s little reason for NVIDIA to funnel exorbitantly priced memory toward gaming GPUs. It’s much more profitable to put every memory chip they can get their hands on into AI GPU racks and continue receiving mountains of cash by selling them to AI behemoths.

The RTX 50 Super GPUs might never get released

A sign of times to come

NVIDIA’s RTX 50 Super series was supposed to increase memory capacity of its most popular gaming GPUs. The 16GB RTX 5080 was to be superseded by a 24GB RTX 5080 Super; the same fate would await the 16GB RTX 5070 Ti, while the 18GB RTX 5070 Super was to replace its 12GB non-Super sibling. But according to recent reports, NVIDIA has put it on ice.

The RTX 50 Super launch had been slated for this year’s CES in January, but after missing the show, it now looks like NVIDIA has delayed the lineup indefinitely. According to a recent report, NVIDIA doesn’t plan to launch a single new gaming GPU in 2026. Worse still, the RTX 60 series, which had been expected to debut sometime in 2027, has also been delayed.

A report by The Information (via Tom’s Hardware) states that NVIDIA had finalized the design and specs of its RTX 50 Super refresh, but the RAM-pocalypse threw a wrench into the works, forcing the company to “deprioritize RTX 50 Super production.” In other words, it’s exactly what I said a few paragraphs ago: selling enterprise GPU racks to AI companies is far more lucrative than selling comparatively cheaper GPUs to gamers, especially now that memory prices have been skyrocketing.

Before putting the RTX 50 series on ice, NVIDIA had already slashed its gaming GPU supply by about a fifth and started prioritizing models with less VRAM, like the 8GB versions of the RTX 5060 and RTX 5060 Ti, so this news isn’t that surprising.

So when can we expect RTX 60 GPUs?

Late 2028-ish?

A GPU with a pile of money around it. Credit: Lucas Gouveia / How-To Geek

The good news is that the RTX 60 series is definitely in the pipeline, and we will see it sooner or later. The bad news is that its release date is up in the air, and it’s best not to even think about pricing. The word on the street around CES 2026 was that NVIDIA would release the RTX 60 series in mid-2027, give or take a few months. But as of this writing, it’s increasingly likely we won’t see RTX 60 GPUs until 2028.

If you’ve been following the discussion around memory shortages, this won’t be surprising. In late 2025, the prognosis was that we wouldn’t see the end of the RAM-pocalypse until 2027, maybe 2028. But a recent statement by SK Hynix chairman (the company is one of the world’s three largest memory manufacturers) warns that the global memory shortage may last well into 2030.

If that turns out to be true, and if the global AI data center boom doesn’t slow down in the next few years, I wouldn’t be surprised if NVIDIA delays the RTX 60 GPUs as long as possible. There’s a good chance we won’t see them until the second half of 2028, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they miss that window as well if memory supply doesn’t recover by then. Data center GPUs are simply too profitable for NVIDIA to reserve a meaningful portion of memory for gaming graphics cards as long as shortages persist.


At least current-gen gaming GPUs are still a great option for any PC gamer

If there is a silver lining here, it is that current-gen gaming GPUs (NVIDIA RTX 50 and AMD Radeon RX 90) are still more than powerful enough for any current AAA title. Considering that Sony is reportedly delaying the PlayStation 6 and that global PC shipments are projected to see a sharp, double-digit decline in 2026, game developers have little incentive to push requirements beyond what current hardware can handle.

DLSS 5, on the other hand, may be the future of gaming, but no one likes it, and it will take a few years (and likely the arrival of the RTX 60 lineup) for it to mature and become usable on anything that’s not a heckin’ RTX 5090.

If you’re open to buying used GPUs, even last-gen gaming graphics cards offer tons of performance and are able to rein in any AAA game you throw at them. While we likely won’t get a new gaming GPU from NVIDIA for at least a few years, at least the ones we’ve got are great today and will continue to chew through any game for the foreseeable future.



Source link