Meta’s new prediction market app Arena could bring betting to 3 billion users


TL;DR

Mark Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction market app called Arena, rattling DraftKings and Flutter shares on Tuesday.

Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team at Meta to build a smartphone app that would compete with prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, the New York Times reported on Tuesday. The app, internally called Arena, would operate independently from Facebook and Instagram. Meta declined to comment.

Arena would initially use a video-game-style points system rather than letting users wager real money, according to the report. The company has not ruled out introducing real-money betting in the future. The distinction matters because real-money prediction markets face federal oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulators around the world have increasingly treated as gambling.

The announcement sent shares of existing betting and prediction market companies lower. DraftKings fell more than 2 percent on the news, Flutter Entertainment dropped roughly 2 percent, and Robinhood also declined. The market reaction reflects the threat that Meta’s distribution advantage poses to smaller platforms.

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Meta could direct its roughly 3 billion monthly active users across Facebook and Instagram toward a prediction market product, a scale that no existing platform comes close to matching. Polymarket and Kalshi have grown rapidly but remain niche by comparison. Combined monthly trading volume across both platforms quadrupled from under $5 billion to $24 billion between September 2025 and April 2026, according to Pew Research, but even that surge is small relative to Meta’s user base.

The timing is notable. The CFTC proposed new rules on June 10 that would ban contracts tied to war, assassinations, and terrorism while potentially legalizing wagers on sporting events. The regulatory framework for prediction markets in the United States is still being written, and Meta’s entry could accelerate that process by bringing mainstream consumer attention to a product category that has operated largely in the margins.

DraftKings launched its own Predictions platform in December 2025, but the company’s stock has fallen 37 percent year to date. Its 2026 revenue guidance of roughly six and a half to seven billion dollars came in well below the seven and a third billion that analysts expected. The gap between its ambitions in prediction markets and its financial performance suggests the category is harder to monetise than incumbents anticipated.

Prediction markets have also faced integrity problems. Kalshi and Polymarket both announced new insider trading curbs in March 2026 after a series of high-profile incidents. A Google engineer was charged by the Department of Justice with using internal search data to profit on Polymarket, and a US soldier was charged separately for betting on Venezuelan political outcomes using non-public information.

Arena is one of several new apps Meta is testing, according to the Times. Others include Meta Photos, a media-generation tool. The company has been expanding beyond its core social networking products under Zuckerberg’s direction, with recent initiatives including the Meta Business Agent for customer service across WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram, and paid subscription plans for its apps.

Whether Meta ultimately builds a points-only game or a real-money trading platform will shape the regulatory and competitive implications. A points-based product would sidestep CFTC jurisdiction entirely and could launch quickly. A real-money version would require regulatory approval and compliance infrastructure that Meta has never built, but would tap into a market that has shown it can generate billions in monthly volume.

For Polymarket and Kalshi, the threat is existential in either scenario. A free, points-based prediction game from Meta could drain casual user attention from platforms that depend on active participation to set accurate prices. A real-money version would pit them against a company with more cash, more engineers, and more users than the entire prediction market industry combined.



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Ghost CMS flaw abused to push ClickFix attacks on hundreds of sites

Pierluigi Paganini
May 25, 2026

Threat actors are actively exploiting a security flaw, tracked as CVE-2026-26980, in Ghost CMS that was fixed months ago in real attacks against unpatched websites. According to Qianxin, the campaign has already affected more than 700 sites, including well-known organizations and universities.

The vulnerability is an SQL injection issue in Ghost’s Content API that can let an attacker read data from the database without logging in. In the worst case, this can expose the Admin API key, which can allow attackers to take over the site.

That key matters because it can be used to change published content. In this campaign, attackers used it to edit articles on compromised Ghost sites and insert malicious JavaScript at the end of pages. The goal was not just defacement, but to turn trusted websites into launch points for further malware delivery.

“After an in-depth investigation and analysis, we determined that this was not a targeted intrusion against the customer, but rather a large-scale poisoning campaign by an in-the-wild attack group targeting Ghost CMS. Although CVE-2026-26980 was publicly disclosed as early as February 19, a large number of users did not patch and upgrade in time, providing an opportunity for attackers.” reads the advisory published by Qianxin. “At least two groups are currently actively conducting such poisoning operations, and some sites have even become the target of competition between the two parties, with different malicious code being implanted one after another within a single day.”

The inserted code led visitors through a two-step chain. First, the page loaded a remote script that checked the browser and decided what the visitor should see. Then real victims were redirected to a fake verification page that looked like a normal “I’m human” check.

This is where the ClickFix part began. The page told users to press Windows+R, paste a command, and hit Enter. In practice, that command downloaded and started a malware payload on the victim’s machine. It was a classic social engineering trick: make the user do the dangerous part themselves.

Qianxin says the first signs of this activity appeared in early May. The malicious code found in the campaign had a compilation date of February 16, the same day Ghost announced the fix for CVE-2026-26980. That suggests the attackers moved quickly once they saw how many sites had not been updated.

The affected websites cover a wide range of sectors. Roughly half are personal blogs or independent sites, but the list also includes technology blogs, AI sites, media outlets, crypto projects, and educational institutions. Qianxin researchers say victims include sites linked to Harvard, Oxford, and DuckDuckGo.

The attack chain was also designed to be flexible. The loaders could fetch different payloads depending on the target, and the operators changed infrastructure several times.

“entire attack process has obvious five-stage characteristics of “CMS Takeover → Page Poisoning → Two-stage Loading → Social Engineering Lure (FakeCaptcha/ClickFix) → Malware Delivery”, and the entire process is highly automated: bulk vulnerability scanning → automatic key extraction → bulk injection → dynamic C2 distribution.” states the report.

In some cases, they switched domains after detection, keeping the campaign alive even when part of the chain was blocked.

“Through feature scanning of publicly accessible pages, we have cumulatively identified more than 700 poisoned victim domains, and have proactively contacted the sites for which contact information could be obtained, notifying them of the poisoning.” continues the report.

Qianxin also believes at least two different groups are involved. In some cases, the same site was hit more than once, with one attacker replacing the code left by another. That makes the campaign harder to clean up and shows how attractive compromised Ghost sites have become for abuse.

For site owners, the advice is straightforward. Ghost should be updated immediately, all credentials should be rotated, and site logs should be reviewed for suspicious admin API activity. Any injected scripts should be removed from the database itself, not just from the visual editor. Visitors who may have reached a poisoned site should also be warned.

The report includes Indicators of Compromise (IoCs) for the attacks observed by the researchers.

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Pierluigi Paganini

(SecurityAffairs – hacking, Ghost CMS)







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