OpenAI to file for IPO this week, targeting $1 trillion debut


TL;DR

OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for an IPO as soon as this week, targeting a trillion-dollar autumn debut with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Prediction market odds swung sharply in its favour, with Anthropic’s chances of listing first collapsing from 69 per cent to 20 per cent.

The AI industry’s most consequential race is no longer about building the best model. It is about getting to public markets first. OpenAI appears to have taken the lead.

The company is preparing to confidentially file a draft of its IPO prospectus as soon as this week, according to CNBC, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising on the process. The target is an autumn debut, potentially as early as September, at a valuation that could exceed $1 trillion.

That timeline caught prediction market traders off guard. Before the Wall Street Journal first reported the filing plans, Kalshi traders gave OpenAI just a 32 per cent chance of beating Anthropic to a public listing. That figure has since jumped to 83 per cent. On Polymarket, the odds of Anthropic going public first collapsed from 69 per cent to 20 per cent in a matter of hours.

“Getting to public markets first is very important, given this arms race going on,” said Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities’ global head of technology research. The logic is straightforward: the first major AI company to list captures the bulk of institutional capital allocated to the sector, sets the valuation benchmark, and forces rivals to price against it.

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OpenAI’s most recent private funding round, which closed in March, raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation. The round was anchored by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with continued backing from Microsoft. Secondary market trades have since pushed the implied value higher still.

The timing is not accidental. Last weekend, a California jury dismissed all claims in Elon Musk’s lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, ruling that Musk had waited too long to file. The verdict removed what had been a persistent legal cloud over the company’s governance and for-profit transition. Musk called it a “calendar technicality” and vowed to appeal, but the market read it as a green light.

Anthropic, OpenAI’s chief rival, had been widely expected to list first. The Claude maker’s annualised revenue surged from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $30 billion by the end of March, driven largely by demand for its coding tools. It has been in early talks with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley about an IPO that could come as early as October.

But OpenAI’s move to file first changes the dynamics. If it lists in September, Anthropic would face the choice of rushing its own process or waiting until 2027, by which point its trillion-dollar secondary market valuation may have cooled. The first AI mega-IPO will absorb a huge share of institutional attention and capital. The second will get what remains.

The stakes extend beyond OpenAI and Anthropic. SpaceX is also expected to file this year, with a target valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion. Together, these three companies could represent nearly $3 trillion in new public market capitalisation, a volume that will test investor appetite and could reshape how Wall Street allocates to technology.

For OpenAI, the IPO would cap a remarkable transformation. The company was founded as a non-profit research lab in 2015. It is now a for-profit entity backed by more than $200 billion in cumulative funding, building consumer products used by hundreds of millions of people. Whether its revenue, currently growing fast but still dwarfed by its spending, can justify a trillion-dollar public market valuation is the question investors will have to answer.

The filing, when it lands, will be confidential. The public will not see OpenAI’s financials until it chooses to disclose them. But the signal is already clear: in the AI funding arms race, OpenAI is no longer content to stay private.



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Whoop MG on arm

The Whoop is one of the devices that Google’s rumored screenless health tracker would compete with.

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ZDNET’s key takeaways 

  • Google is poised to unveil a Whoop dupe soon. 
  • Steph Curry teased a screenless health band on his Instagram. 
  • Here’s what I’d like to see from a Google fitness band. 

Could Google’s latest fitness tracker return to its original, screenless Fitbit form? All signs say yes. Google has teased a screenless, Whoop-adjacent health tracker with the help of basketball star Steph Curry. A recent Instagram post from Curry shows him wearing a screenless, fabric band around his wrist, and the accompanying caption promotes “a new relationship with your health.” 

There are scant confirmed details on this next device, but rumors suggest the band will be called “Fitbit Air.” 

Also: I replaced my Whoop with a rival fitness band that has no monthly fees – and it’s nearly as good

Why a screenless fitness band? And why now? Google’s new device could be taking interest away from popular fitness brand Whoop. Whoop’s fitness band is on the more luxurious end of the health wearables spectrum. The company offers three subscription tiers, starting at $199, $239, and $359 annually. Google’s device, on the other hand, is rumored to be more affordable with the option to upgrade to Fitbit Premium. 

Google has the opportunity to make an accessibly priced fitness band with the rumored Fitbit Air and breathe new life into its older Fitbit product lineup, which hasn’t been updated in years. 

What I’m expecting 

Here’s what I expect to see and what I hope Google prioritizes in this new health tracker.

Given Fitbit’s bare-bones approach to fitness tracking, I assume Google will emphasize an affordable, accessible fitness band with the Fitbit Air. Most Fitbit products cost between $130 and $230, so I’m expecting this band to be on the lower end of that price range. I’d also expect Fitbit to give users a free trial of Fitbit Premium. 

Also: T-Mobile is practically giving away the Apple Watch Series 11 – here’s how to get one

A long, long, long battery life 

A smartwatch with a bright screen and integrations with an accompanying smartphone consumes a lot of power. That’s why some of the best smartwatches on the market have a middling battery life of one to two days, tops. 

A fitness band, on the other hand, is screenless. That makes the battery potential on this Fitbit Air double — or even triple — that of Google’s smartwatches.

Also: I use this 30-second routine to fix sluggish Samsung smartwatches – and it works every time

The Fitbit Inspire 3 has around 10 days of battery life — with a watch display. I hope the screenless Fitbit Air has at least 10 days of battery life, plus some change. Two weeks of battery life would be splendid. 

In addition to usage time, I also hope that a screenless fitness tracker addresses some of the issues Fitbit Inspire users have complained about. Many Inspire users report that the device’s screen died after a year of use. They could still access data through the app, but the screen was dysfunctional. Despite being a more affordable Google health tracker, the Fitbit Air should last users for a few years without any hardware issues — or at least I hope it does. 

Fitbit’s classically accurate heart rate measurements 

As Google’s Performance Advisor and the athlete teasing Google’s next device, Steph Curry is sending the message that this new device, one that offers wearers “a new relationship with your health,” will be built for athletes and exercise enthusiasts. I hope this device homes in on accurate heart rate measurements and advanced sensing, as other Fitbit devices do. 

Also: I walked 3,000 steps with my Apple Watch, Google Pixel, and Oura Ring – this tracker was most accurate

Like Whoop, I hope the insights the Fitbit Air provides are performance- and recovery-driven. Whoop grew in popularity for exactly this reason. Not only do Whoop users get their sleep and recovery score, but they also see, through graphs and health data illustrations, how their daily exercise exertion, strain, and sleep interact with and inform each other. 

I’m assuming that Fitbit Premium, with its AI-powered health coach and revamped app design, may do a lot of the heavy lifting for sleep and recovery insights with this new product. 

Also: Are AI health coach subscriptions a scam? My verdict after testing Fitbit’s for a month

But I also hope Google adds a few features on the app’s home screen that specifically target athletic strain and recovery, beyond the steps, sleep, readiness, and weekly exercise percentage already available on the Fitbit app’s main screen. 

Lots of customizable, distinct bands 

I hope the Fitbit Air is cheap — and the accompanying bands are even cheaper. If the rumors of affordability are true, then I’d hope Fitbit sells bands that can be worn with the device that match users’ styles and color preferences at a similarly affordable and accessible price point. Curry wears a gray-orange band in his teaser. I hope the colorways for this device are bold, patterned, and easily distinguishable from rival fitness bands. 





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