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Many were expecting U.S. electric car sales to drop sharply after the federal government ended its EV tax credit, but the extent of that plunge is now becoming clear. Cox Automotive reports that EV sales fell 27 percent year-over-year in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 to just 216,399 cars, or 5.8 percent of the total market.

The declines were particularly harsh for most established brands. Volkswagen’s EV sales dropped by 90 percent, while demand also fell sharply for Ford (70 percent) and BMW (60 percent). Relatively small participants like Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Nissan each saw sales drop well below one percent share.

Tesla sees a boost

Model Y sales pick up steam

Tesla, however, directly benefited from the market shakeup. While its Q1 2026 sales dropped over eight points to 117,300, its market share grew from just over 43 percent in early 2025 to more than 54 percent a year later.

That was helped by sales of the Model Y, with deliveries jumping almost 23 percent to handily make it the most popular EV in the country.

There was good news for a few other brands. Toyota’s surprise success with the 2026 bZ helped its sales surge by 79 percent, while its Lexus luxury brand saw sales spike by over 206 percent.

There were also wins for EV-only marques. Lucid’s new Gravity SUV helped it barely stay in positive territory, while Rivian sales grew over 21 percent despite the wait for the more affordable R2.

Shot of the Afeela 1 sedan on stage at CES 2025

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Why EV sales are dropping

Entering a “new phase” in the market

A Kia Niro EV charging at a Tesla Supercharger stall.

Cox Automotive is direct about the reasons: the end to federal incentives marks a “new phase” in the EV market, according to insights director Stephanie Valdez. She says Q1 2026 represented a “necessary reset” to reflect the end of the tax credit. Companies were already scaling back production, and now have to focus on basics like affordability and infrastructure investments.

Tesla’s relative success comes through both its sheer size in the market and narrow focus. Now that it has canceled the Model S and X, it’s concentrating almost all its energy on just two cars, the Model 3 and Model Y. That stands in contrast with many-vehicle brands that mainly sell gas cars and have taken financial hits from poor-selling EVs. Ford discontinued its F-150 Lightning pickup in December due to low demand and losses, while VW ended ID.4 production this week to focus on “higher-volume” cars like the Atlas.

What the future may hold

Cox still sees EV demand growing in the long term. However, it’s not certain the Iran war and surging gas prices will drive EV demand.

Interest in EVs is rising based on searches and shopping traffic at Cox brands like Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, but that doesn’t automatically translate to sales. Car shopping is a “long process” with multiple influences, according to Kelley Blue Book’s Sean Tucker—a month of high pump prices is unlikely to lead to a revival.

Historically, changes in car shopping have come from deep, sustained market changes. The oil crises of the 1970s shifted Americans away from giant cars, for instance. Cox notes that it took hybrid cars 25 years to thrive. An EV recovery may be likely, but it could take years rather than months.

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